Evidence of Anecdotes is not Anecdotal Evidence
Here's a story: One day this guy who I've worked with (though he's not in my office) for many years comes into my office and sits down, as he has often done over the years. As we're talking this time, he looks up and notices that I have several pictures of Rottweilers in the room. Why he's never noticed this before, I have no idea.
"Are those your dogs?" he asks
"Yes, I have two Rottweilers."
"Those dogs are going to kill you," he says.
"No, actually, they're not," I say. "I've had Rottweilers for sixteen years."
"They will kill you," he insists. "They always turn on their owners and kill them. You need to get rid of them now before they kill you."
Me [laughing]
But here's the thing: this guy knows nothing about Rottweilers. He certainly doesn't know anything like as much as I know about them. But he didn't say, 'I'm surprised you have Rottweilers.' Or 'I've heard they're mean.' Or, 'wow, aren't you afraid those things will kill you.' He said, "They'll kill you." Like he knew what he was talking about. Like I couldn't possibly know what I was talking about. Like assertion and experience are the same.
I have to say, I hate that. And it's endemic on the internets. People confidently and with gusto declare things as fact that are patently no such thing. And you (if you, say, have a fever and are temporarily insane) end up arguing with them as if they have some legitimate point, when really they have no freaking idea what they're talking about. They simply have command of language and a big enough ego that they sound as if they do (or, also, they're really good at yelling louder than everyone else).
People don't always end up looking like experts because they are, in fact, experts. They way too often end up in that position because they sound like they know what they're talking about. That (among a number of other reasons) is why so-called meritocracies end up being no such thing. That's why experts are overrated. That's why when someone says 'I know what I'm talking about and here's why.' One might, you know, actually listen to them.
Comments
From http://www.CrooksandLiars.com specifically the Cheers and Jeers: Wednesday I present you with these words of wisdom:
"Where do you come up with this stuff?" "Prove it!" "Who said that?" "You've got to be kidding---is that what you really think?"
Granted, C&L is suggesting a different use for them then as responses for your coworkers, but I think it's valid to ask where he's getting his data from and if he's ever examined it critically.
(and Hi! I'm still following your posts, just not replying often)
Posted by: Tom Powers | November 15, 2006 05:46 PM
Yay, Tom!! I still follow yours too.
I like those responses--although I do think some people are just imprervious.
This is also the guy (who is actually, if you ignore almost every thing he says a decent guy) who I once had a wonderfully convoluted conversation with about cameras (which I thought I'd posted here before, but I'm not finding it so maybe I'll have to post it again/for the first time).
Posted by: debco | November 15, 2006 06:20 PM